Not Reading Too Much Into Late Day Reversal Bonds rallied quickly in response to this morning's jobs report and pressed to even stronger levels by mid-day. That's the point in the day that most traders (the ones actually working) consider bonds to be […]

Today is a half day for financial markets, which is a typical feature of a federal holiday weekend. Because tomorrow is fully closed, the big jobs report (normally a Friday affair) was instead released this morning. It ended up helping rates move lower. The jobs report (officially "The Employment […]

Mortgage application activity was essentially unchanged last week, as a modest increase in purchase demand offset a slight decline in refinancing. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 0.04% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June […]

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) reported on the performance of first-lien mortgages in the federal banking system during the first quarter of 2026. The OCC Mortgage Metrics Report, First Quarter 2026 showed that 97.7 percent of mortgages included in the report were current and […]

Home price appreciation remained subdued in April, as the latest data from both FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices continued to point to a housing market with little overall momentum. While annual price growth improved modestly from the prior month in both reports, […]

Bonds continued drifting gently higher in the overnight session with 10yr yields just barely edging above 4.50% before today's big jobs report (the only calendar event of note before the holiday weekend). The reaction is perfectly reasonable given the data results. The payroll count was weaker (57k […]

Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling The past 2 days have been rough for the bond market--nothing catastrophic, but "brisk" in terms of unexpected selling pressure.  To be fair, buying/selling pressure is never truly expected […]

In a real sense, today's rate update is more of an addendum to yesterday's rate update. Yesterday afternoon saw heavy, continued selling in the bond market amid a flood of trading associated with the end of the quarter. Because mortgage rates are directly based on the bond market, this resulted in […]

We find ourselves in the 3rd quarter of 2026. The stock market has made the headlines, but between a) the reduction in the number of publicly held companies, and b) the weight given to AI-related stocks, it is worth reminding everyone that the stock market is not the economy. Economies are complex, […]

Bonds have added modestly to Tuesday's big quarter-end sell-off (a phenomenon that has nothing to do with the sorts of fundamental developments that dictate a vast majority of market movement). Thankfully, the random plumbing-related volatility is behind us as we begin the new quarter. Old-school […]