Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform Today's jobs report would have been bad for rates if it was even in line with expectations.  After it came out stronger than expected (especially in terms of the unemployment rate at 4.1 vs 4.3 f'cast), it was […]

Today brought the hotly anticipated jobs report.  This is the "official" job count and unemployment rate data for the U.S. and no other report has as much consistent power to cause volatility in the rate market.  Today's was particularly important because a perpetually decent labor market is the […]

Tomorrow is the 4th of July, the only time of the year Americans say the day and month in the correct order. We find ourselves in the traditional “dog days of summer” which refer to the hottest and most uncomfortable days typically occurring from July 3 to August 11 in the Northern Hemisphere. […]

Mortgage application activity moved higher last week as rates declined to the lowest levels since April, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. The Composite Index rose 2.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 27. Results were not adjusted for […]

Apart from the fact that this morning's jobs report contrasted starkly from the slew of anecdotal evidence suggesting a weaker labor market in June, the morning has proceeded almost exactly as expected. We assumed that even an on-target result was worth a bit of bond market weakness given the […]

Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP The consensus for tomorrow's NFP (nonfarm payrolls, the principal component of the big jobs report) is 110k--not much of a downgrade from last month's 139k.  The bond market has recently been trading as if it […]

Mortgage rates have generally been falling since May 21st and have done nothing but move lower for more than 2 weeks.  That winning streak finally came to an end today with the average lender moving up 0.06% for a top tier 30yr fixed quote. While that's a moderately big jump for a single day, if […]

“Pro Tip: Here’s a friendly 4th of July reminder that absolutely no one is going to watch the videos of the fireworks you record on your phone.” You can bet anyone flying some place is watching the flight delays due to staffing and weather. You can bet that people are watching home price […]

ADP employment was this morning's key economic report and it came out sharply weaker than expected (-33k vs 95k f'cast). There are many past examples of a "miss" of this size prompting a swift rally on the bond market.  Although that looked like it could have been in the works in the first few […]

Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data After a bit of overnight strength and an early morning pull-back, bonds were right in line with yesterday afternoon's levels ahead of the 10am data.  JOLTS (job openings) pushed yields back to yesterday's highs--perhaps […]