This week's most important economic data was the PCE price index which is the gold standard of big picture inflation measurement. For those hoping to see rates drop, it was important for PCE to confirm the progress seen in the CPI data (the other major inflation index that came out 2 weeks […]

The only thing constant is change. After 53 years, Southwest Airlines is ending its 100 percent open seating policy! (I don’t mind lining up.) People and companies have to adjust… Time waits for no one. What were concerts like in 1964, 60 years ago? Here’s an interesting chart that shows […]

After yesterday's quarter over quarter core PCE price index came in 0.2% higher than expected, we knew today's monthly PCE data would have to include higher numbers divided across the months of April, May, and June in some unknown proportion.  If April and May were not revised, it suggested an […]

Lots of Competing Motivations Causing Volatility In a Narrow Range Today marked an uptick in the importance of economic data for the week and it had obvious consequences for volatility.  Of particular importance was the higher reading in quarterly PCE […]

Mortgage rates continue moving in very small steps from day to day--something that's been the case since the Consumer Price Index (CPI) more than 2 weeks ago.  Unfortunately, more of those steps have been higher in the past week, and today is no exception for most lenders. This is […]

It was easy to question the notion of "data dependence" in the first half of the week, largely because there wasn't much in terms of meaningful economic data.  There were also several instances of mystery movement in bonds, forcing analysts to focus on curve trading as a thematic driver.  What […]

As lenders continue to deal with change (the latest rumors have Flagstar is selling its mortgage group to Mr. Cooper; rumor only, ask your rep for real information), many people took note when ex-President Trump claimed, during his recent speech, that, “mortgage rates have quadrupled” during […]

Mortgage rates technically moved up to the highest levels in 2 weeks today, but that sounds a bit more dramatic than it actually is.  Rates have largely held inside a narrow range close to the lowest levels in 6 months during that time.  Today's weakness in the bond market just happened to nudge […]

Whatever Happened to Bonds Being Data Dependent? Bonds began the day in stronger territory and remained stronger through mid-day despite AM volatility.  Some of the volatility was driven by economic data with S&P Global Services PMI coming in higher […]

While they may not be the most highly consequential economic reports on any given month, today's S&P Global PMIs were our best shot to see some volatility in the bond market today.  In their defense, they managed to deliver, even if only on a small scale.  As expected, it was the Services PMI […]