Mediocre Data Has Done Nothing to Help Bonds Granted, this week's slate of economic data isn't on quite the same level as NFP week, but neither have offered any seriously upbeat reports. Today's PPI and yesterday's CPI both hit forecasts at the monthly […]

It's been a bummer of a week for mortgage rates with modest to moderate increases every day so far.  Adding insult to injury is the fact that there hasn't been any compelling reason for the increase as far as this week's new economic data is concerned. Economic data is a constant consideration […]

What? You’re a builder who’s short on nails? Well, bring in some folks from Japan… they don’t necessarily need them. Of the nearly 300 types of nails made in the United States today, most are used in residential housing construction. The average wood frame house uses between 20,000 and […]

This morning's Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hotter than expected in year-over-year terms (3.4 vs 3.2 at the core level). Traders were mostly able to look past that given that the most recent month was in line with forecasts. Jobless Claims data helped facilitate gains between 8:30am and 9am […]

Why Bonds Sold Off After a Decent AM Rally It was a day for "explanations" in the bond market with the morning rally needing to be explained in the context of CPI data that came in right on the screws and a subsequent sell-off that also seemed to happen for […]

Mortgage rates were having a pretty decent day at first.  The bond market was only slightly weaker overnight (implies some upward pressure on rates), but quickly improved after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at 8:30am ET.  Notably, CPI was right in line with forecasts--something that often […]

The Mortgage Bankers Association is out with the latest survey of mortgage applications and refinance activity led the charge this week.  In fact, purchase activity declined a bit and refis saw their best weekly gains since September. The following chart shows the week over week change in the refi […]

“I love Christmas lights! They remind me of the people who voted for (insert name of politician). They all hang together, half of them don’t work, and the ones that do aren’t all that bright.” There are, however, bright people who read this Commentary. In response to yesterday’s opening […]

Today's headline and core CPI readings were both perfectly in line with forecasts.  After the data came out, bonds rallied and Fed Funds Futures moved to price in a near certainty of a Fed rate cut next week.  To make matters more confusing, monthly core CPI was 0.31% before being rounded to […]

Ready For Anything After Pre-CPI Consolidation Bonds were arguably consolidating ahead of last Friday's jobs report with the reaction representing a bit of a bullish breakout.  Since then, there's been a quick and obvious re-consolidation back in line with […]