Posted To: Pipeline PressSemper Fi! Tomorrow marks the 38th anniversary of the 1983 bombing in Beirut of a U.S. Marine barracks in the largest conventional explosive blast in history killing 241 Americans. San Diego has a huge military presence, and while there I spent a few hours with the folks at […]

Posted To: MBS CommentaryTo buy the dip or not to buy the dip (in bond prices). That is the question faced by traders today as 10yr yields hit the 1.70% technical level in after hours trading yesterday. This potential technical support coincides with the upper boundary of the ongoing trend channel. […]

Posted To: MND NewsWireExisting home sales resumed an upward trajectory in September after dipping 2.0 percent in August. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said sales of pre-owned single-family houses, townhouses, condominiums, and cooperative apartments rose 7.0 percent in September, […]

Posted To: MBS CommentaryFear of The I-Word Today's 5yr TIPS auction met with heavy demand for inflation protection. While that didn't move markets at the time, it nonetheless underscores the heavy inflation concern driving traders to flatten the yield curve and move up estimated Fed rate hike […]

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates haven't really been able to catch a break recently. This week is shaping up to be one of the worst since March. Since then, only 2 other weeks have been worse and they both occurred in the past month. In and of itself, today's jump in rates wouldn't be […]

Posted To: Pipeline PressThousands of people in the residential lending biz headed to the San Diego aerodrome and flew home. Plenty were sore from wearing dress shoes everywhere, although I saw plenty of gals in flip flops while in transit. Guys are happy to stop wearing ties. Masks at the airport […]

Posted To: MBS CommentaryConsidering yields have pushed to new long-term highs on 3 out of the past 3 days, it's safe to say that bonds are "trending" as opposed to flat/sideways. Covid cases are down sharply week-over-week. Econ data continues to be decent enough. And there are no signs that the […]

Posted To: MBS CommentarySideways to Slightly Weaker After Another Long-Term High 10yr yields hit a 5-month high early in the overnight session and then managed to claw their way back to modestly stronger levels by the start of domestic trading. Amid a dearth of data and actionable headlines, bonds […]

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates began moving off longer term lows in early August and that trend has continued ever since. The September 22nd Fed Announcement (and press conference with Fed Chair Powell) served as a jumping-off point for additional volatility and upward momentum. In […]

Posted To: MBS CommentaryToday has the dubious distinction of being exactly 2 weeks before the Fed announcement (the one that's likely to contain the official tapering announcement). While tapering seems like a bad thing for rates, the timing is important. The most relevant precedent (2013/2014) […]

Posted To: Pipeline PressSomeone here in San Diego asked an audience, “Who out there misses their Blackberry?” and many raised their hands. Technology… an interesting thing. How about the ability to look at this “Star Wars House” in Florida: $11.5 million, not even on the water, but page […]

Posted To: MND NewsWireThe volume of applications for mortgages to purchase newly constructed homes plunged in September, falling 16.2 percent from the September 2020 level according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA's) Builder Application Survey (BAS.) Compared to August the volume of […]

Posted To: MND NewsWireMortgage application volume fell sharply last week, the second decline of more than 6 percent in the past three weeks. Refinancing was down for the fourth straight week and the volume of purchase applications fell as well. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its […]

Posted To: MBS CommentaryThe Trend is Not Your Friend October has been one of those unpleasant months where bonds have several reasons to weaken, few to rally, and where the market hasn't expressed any interest in departing from the logical baseline. In other words, rates are supposed to be rising […]

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates hit their highest levels in months yesterday as bonds lost ground at a brisk pace to start the new week. Bonds--specifically mortgage-backed securities (MBS)--are the most important ingredient used by lenders to determine mortgage rates. Bond market […]

Posted To: MND NewsWireBoth Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the GSEs) will be expanding their low-income refinance programs to include those making at or below 100 percent of an area's median income (AMI). The threshold on the programs is currently at 80 percent of AMI. Sandra L. Thompson, acting […]

Posted To: MND NewsWireBoth permits and housing starts fell in September following an unanticipated increase the previous month. Where the August gains were driven primarily by strong multifamily construction activity, a decline in that sector hurt the September metrics. Permitting was especially […]

Posted To: Pipeline PressThe MBA's conference, which began with a capacity crowd at mPower , is packed with meetings and sessions, and I am sure glad that I’m not going between them in heels! (To paraphrase a joke about how, Fred Astaire was a great dancer, but Ginger did all those moves in heels […]

Posted To: MBS CommentaryIt's an interesting time for rates because the market collectively knows where it should be going (i.e. toward even higher rates), yet seems to be dragging its feet in getting there. That's not to say rates aren't higher in the past few weeks, but 10yr yields continue to […]

Posted To: MBS CommentaryDecent Recovery After a Rocky Start Bonds sold off right at the start of the overnight session with yields nearly matching the recent overnight high from last Tuesday. Losses continued into the domestic session. Oil, inflation concerns, Fed rate hike expectations, […]

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates had a mixed showing last week. They started out high before improving through Thursday. Finally, they took a step back up on Friday. Now at the start of the new week, the upward momentum is continuing. The bond market was much weaker in overnight […]

Posted To: MND NewsWireMembers of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) are holding their annual convention in San Diego this week and the opening day was accompanied by the usual flurry of press releases including forecasts from the association's economists for the coming year. The projections, […]

Posted To: MND NewsWireHome builders apparently pushed aside current concerns about supply chain disruptions to display increased confidence in the new home market in October. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) which gauges that confidence rose 4 […]

Posted To: Pipeline PressOne discussion topic here at the MBA’s annual conference, besides how rates are pressing higher, is how wonderful the San Diego weather is. But there are much better places to see autumn colors than coastal Southern California. (The 2021 Fall Foliage Map is a visual […]

Posted To: MBS CommentaryWe typically don't talk too much about volume. It doesn't much matter for the purpose of tracking intraday reprice risk because the price is the price is the price. When we look beyond the intraday time frame, elevated volume can add validation to any particular move. If […]