Early Volatility And a Decent Recovery Bonds lost ground in the overnight session after Chinese regulators cautioned banks against holding US Treasuries. That move was short-lived and more than fully erased before 9am ET. Part of the bounce back can be […]

The past 2 weeks have seen very little volatility for mortgage rates.  After being near 6% for a week in early January, rates rose abruptly to 6.21% (avg top tier 30yr fixed) on January 20th in response to geopolitical drama. They've generally descended since then, but in slow, measured steps.   […]

Lenders are always analyzing automation for parts of the manufacturing process, and industry vet and STRATMOR Senior Advisor Sue Woodard has her thoughts about last week’s MBA conference. “The IMB has always been a barometer for where this industry actually is, not where slide decks say it […]

Most nights, Treasuries trade in fairly low volume in a fairly narrow range.  Last night's range wasn't much wider than normal, but most of the movement happened all at once. It was also accompanied by much higher volume than normal. These are surefire signs of the market reacting to data or news. […]

Potential Signs of GSE Buying as MBS Outperform It was an uneventful day when it comes to scheduled data/events, and also pretty boring for the bond market in general. Most of the market's volatility continues playing out in stocks, commodities, crypto, […]

In the bigger picture, the past two and a half weeks have been marked by a very narrow range in the bond market. Because bonds dictate mortgage rates, the latter have also been in a narrow range with average top tier 30yr fixed rates of 6.15-6.20%.  Yesterday's employment-related data helped […]

Mortgage application activity moved lower again last week, extending the pullback from January’s earlier burst of demand as weather disruptions and softening purchase activity weighed on overall volume. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications declined 8.9% for the […]

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Friday is the quietest day of the week in terms of scheduled econ data and events, with the relatively unimportant Consumer Sentiment being the only notable report. Bonds are roughly unchanged to start the session. Treasury yields are technically a few bps higher from yesterday's 5pm levels, but […]

Surprisingly Big Bond Rally Relative to The Data Bonds went on a bit of a buying spree on Thursday. It was the biggest rally day since November, at least, and that's impressive given the motivations. Specifically, there was a trifecta of downbeat labor […]