Interest rates take cues from several places. Regularly scheduled economic data is always a consideration because a stronger economy implies more growth and tighter Fed policy, both of which are bad for rates. Certain reports carry significantly more weight than others.  If put to a vote, the […]

Perfect Storm Leaves Rate Range Perfectly Intact Coming into the week, yields were near the top of a narrow range (3.4-3.56 give or take).  With both ISM reports, the jobs report, and policy announcements from the Fed/ECB/BOE, it was a distinct […]

While we may not have a great explanation or even the capacity to believe it, nonfarm payrolls came in at 517,000 this morning versus a median forecast of 185,000.  The bond market has reacted about like you'd expect: with a large, immediate sell-off.  While that number does indeed seem very high […]

Fun with numbers! 1: the number of Chinese surveillance balloons over Montana. (That we know of.) Did you know that the last day of 2023 is 123123? (You heard it here first!) While we’re on random numbers, Atlanta has almost 25 thousand surveillance cameras, grabbing the honors as the most […]

Bonds Talked Into Modest Gains by Europe US bond traders didn't necessarily come into work with the intention of adding to yesterday's rally.  It was only after European bonds exploded into stronger territory that US yields grudgingly followed--very […]

Mortgage rates responded favorably to yesterday's press conference with Fed Chair Powell.  We discussed that move in detail in yesterday's commentary: Fed Hikes Rates. Mortgage Rates Drop. Here's How That Works. Now today, the average lender improved just a bit more as the Fed's European […]

Today's big story is the European bond market's reaction to the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement.  The hike was as-expected, but the ECB also said the next rate hike is already locked in for March at which point it will reevaluate.  That reevaluation means a pivot toward smaller rate […]

Happy Groundhog Day, where the rodent saw its shadow this morning, so plan on six more weeks of winter. There’s an old Yiddish proverb “We plan, God laughs.” Lots of people plan on owning a home, and will need financing. (Today’s podcast features an interview with homeowner Riley Howard […]

For some, this will be old hat.  For others, there's a mystifying dynamic that demands explanation.  The confusion stems from years of being conditioned to believe that when the Fed "hikes" or "cuts" rates that mortgage rates move accordingly.  That's actually not exactly how it works. The Fed […]

Markets Surprisingly Surprised by Unsurprising Powell Comments We were pretty sure we knew what Powell would generally say in today's press conference.  He turned out to be generally predictable.  After all, there are really only two things the Fed can […]