Posted To: MND NewsWireConstruction expenditures started 2021 displaying the same imbalance between the growth of residential and non-residential spending that had dominated much of 2020. The U.S. Census Bureau said overall spending in January was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.522 […]

Posted To: MBS CommentaryToo Strong to Give Up Hope. Too Weak to Rest Easy - New week, new month, new chance for yields to confirm a ceiling after last week's rout - Mixed results for bonds today with early weakness and a late bounce (especially for MBS) - Very poor liquidity in MBS (buyers and […]

Posted To: MBS CommentaryAfter Friday's impressive (and much-needed) bounce toward lower yields, the new week/month took on even greater importance than normal as a venue for a shift in the recently ultra-bearish tone. In other words, yields have been surging relentlessly higher, and it's about […]

Posted To: Pipeline PressWith the jump up in mortgage rates Thursday, and the move back down Friday, a few lock desk personnel wrote to me over the weekend asking about ways of keeping LOs who floated when rates were low, or locked loans at the bottom, off their back . Here you go . Certainly, the […]

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchRising rates have been on the menu for months, but the drama kicked into a higher gear this week. Maybe you heard about this? We've certainly been discussing it in recent newsletters ( especially last week's ). The rising rate narrative hit the mainstream this week as […]

Posted To: MBS CommentaryNice Bounce! Now What? - An early bounce turned into an even bigger, friendlier bounce at the end of the day - Biggest reason for the gains is the losses that preceded them (momentum/technicals/tradeflows) - Still following the 2.5 coupon - Still would like to see better […]

Posted To: MND NewsWireBlack Knight reports a second increase in the number of loans in pandemic related forbearance plans in as many weeks. Forborne loans rose by 21,000 during the week ended February 23 after falling below 2.7 million for the first time since last April earlier this month. The […]

Posted To: Pipeline PressHuh? Rates don’t continually go down and then stay there for an indefinite period of time? No, they don’t. There’s this opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal: “We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April. COVID cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level […]

Posted To: MND NewsWireFreddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 16.1 percent in January compared to a 22.4 percent gain in December. The portfolio balance at the end of the period was $2.777 trillion compared to $2.740 trillion the prior […]

Posted To: MND NewsWireDeadlines for COVID-19 related relief for borrowers with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (GSE) mortgages were extended by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) for the second time in a little over two weeks. The agency said the new changes were made to bring GSE programs into […]

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates WISH they were still at 2.97%--the number conveyed today by Freddie Mac's weekly survey. Freddie's data is accurate when it comes to capturing broad trends over time, but can really fall short when the bond market is experiencing elevated volatility. To […]

Posted To: MBS CommentaryJust When You Thought It Wouldn't Get Much Worse Staggeringly weak day for bonds. 2.0 MBS coupon is now irrelevant. 2.5 is only game in town Lots of general motivations to discuss (watch the video), but the 7yr auction was the only obvious moment for cause & effect Econ […]

Posted To: MND NewsWireJanuary marked the fifth straight month that the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) has reported a decline in its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI). The index, based on newly signed contracts for the purchase of existing homes, was down 2.8 percent from its December […]

Posted To: Pipeline PressAs hope for a recovery drawing nearer helps push rates higher, Carol K. writes, “I hate it when people ask me what I do for fun because there is no classy way to say, ‘Binge drink.’” The approaching 1003 form mandatory changes may cause some people to turn to […]

Posted To: MBS CommentaryIt got much worse. Bond yields were up more than 8bps by the open with the 10yr just a hair under 1.47%. It might be hard for traders to avoid ringing the 1.50% bell even if bonds manage to bounce today or in the next few days. The kicker is that the weakness lacks the sort […]

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchAs of today, you'd have to go back to June 2020 to see higher mortgage rates. This is courtesy of an ongoing move in the bond market that has longer-term rates/yields surging higher at the quickest pace since the pandemic began. The broader bond market has actually […]

Posted To: MBS CommentaryIs It Another Trap and Which Coupon Do I Watch Now? Yesterday's bond market resilience offered hope for a bounce, but those hopes were crushed by new weakness this morning. The move took MBS to their worst levels since last March and Treasuries, since February 2020. Bonds […]

Posted To: MND NewsWireNew home sales continued the turnaround, started in December, that ended three straight months of slowing sales. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development said newly constructed homes were sold in January at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of […]

Posted To: MND NewsWireLoan performance continued to improve in January although the number of delinquencies remains significantly elevated from pre-pandemic levels. Black Knight's first look at the month's loan performance data has both good news and some that is disquieting. The good news is a […]

Posted To: MBS CommentaryYesterday saw yields hold at just slightly lower highs on an intraday basis, thus offering a glimmer of hope for a bond bounce. We discussed the risk that this was a trap, and so far today, it looks like it was. 10yr yields are over 1.4% and UMBS 2.5 coupons are now the […]

Posted To: Pipeline PressThere’s a cost to staying at home as much as we do. I went to the doctor the other day. She told me, “I’ve got good news and bad news. The good news is that your weight is perfect. The bad news is that you’re two feet too short.” What is the cost of you keeping a […]

Posted To: MND NewsWireThe volume of mortgage applications for both home purchase and refinancing fell for the third straight time during the week ended February 19. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) says its Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume, dropped 11.4 percent on a […]

Posted To: MBS CommentaryGlimmer of Hope in Bonds, But It Might Be a Trap Bonds started the day in roughly unchanged territory and promptly began tanking. This was a bigger deal for MBS than Treasuries as the latter managed to stay UNDER yesterday's intraday high yields. Heavy losses in stocks at […]

Posted To: MND NewsWireBoth the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller and The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) report that the country ended the year with more than a 10 percent annual increase in home prices. The Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census […]

Posted To: Pipeline Press(To listen to the audio version of today’s commentary, please click here .) Being home schooled was the goodest thing I ever did! Disparities in mortgage approval rates and higher student loan debt are contributing to a significant gap between Black and White home owners, […]