Remember October and the first part of November--not because of the election, but rather because of the relentless rise in mortgage rates?  Would you rather forget?  You're not alone.  It was the fastest rate spike since 2022, and it was made all the more memorable because it put an end to the […]

First thing's first, mortgage applications increased last week, both for purchases and refinances! It was the first improvement for refi demand since mid September, when rates were well into their lowest levels in more than 2 years.  Top tier conventional 30yr fixed rates were being quoted at […]

“I thought swimming with dolphins was expensive until I went swimming with sharks. It cost me an arm and a leg.” Through the wonders of modern air travel, I find myself in St. Louis for the MBA of St. Louis event. Here in St. Louis, lending costs, rates, and regulations are on the minds of […]

There has been plenty of news over the past 48 hours regarding the U.S. greenlighting Ukraine to use long range missiles to attack Russia.  Yesterday's examples resulted in relatively modest overnight gains for the bond market. Today's example is a developing story. It involves Ukraine firing […]

Bonds Give Back Most of The Overnight Gains Stocks and bonds had a logical response to the threat of global nuclear war overnight, but even at the height of that trade, the gains weren't too big for Treasuries/MBS.  Starting at 9am ET, bonds began giving […]

Ask your favorite curmudgeonly old market watcher and they'll be happy to explain what "always" happens in financial markets when there's breaking news regarding large scale geopolitical risk.  It would be a surprise if you didn't hear a phrase like "flight to safety," the most common shorthand […]

The most common interval for scheduled economic data is "monthly."  That means that things like inflation, sentiment, job counts, unemployment, retail sales, and many other economic metrics are updated and released every month, even when nothing very interesting is happening. On that note, there […]

“What do giraffes and zoning regulations have in common? They both don't exist in Texas.” I am not heading there for a while, but instead head to St. Louis this morning for the MBA of St. Louis event. I received this note from a veteran broker. “Someone please remind government officials, […]

Tuesday brings a classic example of a seemingly significant geopolitical headline resulting in a completely underwhelming bond market reaction.  When it comes to such matters, we must ask "who thought it seemed significant?"  Quite a few people, most likely, but not as many bond traders. One […]

Still Waiting For an End to Unfriendly Trend It was an uneventful Monday for the bond market.  Economic data was limited to the NAHB Housing Market Index (builder confidence)--a report that hasn't been a market mover since the financial crisis.  And none […]