Bonds Hold The Range Despite More Data-Driven Volatility At 0.9, not only did today's PPI crush the 0.2 forecast, but it's also the highest reading since post-covid hyper-inflation by a wide margin.  And while there's always a chance it will be revised to […]

Mortgage rates hit fresh long term lows yesterday with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at the best levels since October 3rd, 2024.  There wasn't anything exceptional about the movement yesterday or on any other day in the past week.  Rather, it was the jobs report at the beginning of the […]

“I somehow managed to make it through high school math while only being able to remember even numbers. What are the odds?!” As the California MBA’s Western Secondary breaks up here in Southern California, numbers are dancing in everyone’s head. Volumes, margins, gain on sale, concessions, […]

There's no question that today's Producer Price Index came in surprisingly hot. Both the headline and core numbers were 0.9% vs forecasts of 0.2%.  The biggest impact came from "trade services" which speaks to wholesalers and retailers marking up margins. There were similar anecdotes in other […]

Data-Free Rally Day Wednesday represented this week's lull in terms of scheduled market movers on the calendar. Overnight gains game courtesy of strength in EU bonds as well as burgeoning expectations for a Fed rate cut at the September meeting (now roughly […]

October 3rd, 2024 continues to be the day to beat when it comes to mortgage rates hanging out at 10 month lows. Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate matched October 4th levels for the first time since then, just barely edging out last week's lowest levels. Hitting the next milestone will be a much […]

I received this note from Dallas. “I like ‘dillos, but I don’t support giving them guns because... I would never armadillo.” Speaking of which, Texas is slowing down: The Dallas Fed tells us, “Texas’ overall pace of economic growth, much of it due to jobs in innovation, is trending […]

Mortgage application activity surged last week as sharply lower mortgage rates boosted refinance demand and gave purchase applications a modest lift. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a 10.9% increase in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending August 8, […]

Bonds rallied overnight, largely in concert with lower EU yields. Stable inflation in Germany and lower oil prices helped. But there was also a tailwind from Fed Funds Futures which saw a further increase in the odds of a rate cut at the September meeting. While this is undoubtedly a better way to […]

Bonds Eventually Pass on Decisive Reaction to Tuesday's Data Right at the 8:30am release time, bonds rallied on core CPI almost perfectly hitting unrounded forecasts (.32 vs .31). Additionally, the 2.7% vs 2.8% annual headline number was another step in the […]