First thing's first before anyone gets too excited: yes, rates fell on Friday, but not significantly.  The average lender is still a bit closer to the higher end of the recent range. In addition, the recent range is quite narrow with average top tier 30yr fixed rates never straying too far from […]

The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) tracks purchase contract signings that have not yet turned into Existing Home Sales. Things haven't been going well for either sales metric for more than 2 years now--a problem that can be blamed on a combination of factors led […]

What's Up With The Big Bond Rally Despite Higher Inflation? It was one thing when bonds were only modestly stronger after this morning's inflation data. But 10yr yields went on to drop 12.7bps to the day at the lowest levels of the week (4.235%) and MBS […]

This week's update on refinance application demand accurately reflects the fact that rates came into the week near their recent highs, but managed to fall in line with recent lows several days later. The net effect for the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) Refinance Index was a modest drop from […]

It's not uncommon for certain medications to come with warnings about avoiding certain activities like driving or operating heavy machinery due to the risk of drowsiness. But medications aren't the only causes of such sleepiness.  Just ask the latest New Home Sales report from Census Bureau! […]

There are two dominant home price indices released each month in the U.S.  The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) is responsible for the most all-inclusive tally of home prices via its Home Price Index (HPI).  S&P Case Shiller provides the private sector's largest HPI, which tends to […]

“What is the difference between the government and organized crime? Only one of them is organized.” (Suitable for any administration.) Government policy, economics, and technology have been the three big topics at mortgage conferences for many conference seasons, and this MCT event in San Diego […]

Inflation, via this morning's PCE price index, came in slightly hotter than expected, but bonds are rallying in response. There are a few ways to approach this paradox both in the long and short term.  On a more nitty gritty level, the unrounded PCE numbers were fairly close to consensus and that […]

Uneventful Drift Ahead of Friday's Monthly PCE Data For the 3rd day in a row, the bond market logged a rather uneventful trading session ending with minimal change versus the previous trading day.  All this despite the presence of several economic reports […]

With the exception of Monday, which saw a medium-sized uptick in mortgage rates, the rest of the week has been fairly calm in terms of volatility. Unfortunately, the low-volatility movement has been exclusively higher in rate and it's starting to add up.  In fact, as of today, the top tier […]