Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week Bonds benefited from a one-two punch of economic data and stock market weakness on Friday, eventually helping 10yr yields flirt with their lowest levels since December 18th (Feb 5th and 7th still technically a hair lower). […]

Back on December 18th, rates began the day fairly close to where they ended the previous day. In the afternoon, rates surged sharply higher following the Fed announcement. Even since then, the average 30yr fixed rate has operated almost exclusively above 7%.  Rates dipped a pinky toe into the 6% […]

Per the latest release from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), both refinance and purchase indices decreased this week. In terms of the change from the previous week, it was the biggest drop so far this year, but not remotely as big as last week of 2024.  Here is the refi index in terms of […]

The Census Bureau released its New Residential Construction report this week, frequently referred to by its principal component "housing starts" (a term for the start of the first phase of new home construction). In addition to housing starts, the data also logs building permits as well as […]

The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) along with Wells Fargo released the monthly builder confidence index this week, and it came out much weaker than expected. With tariff and immigration news rapidly evolving, it's tempting to conclude that any major changes in homebuilder sentiment […]

MBS are very close to their February 5th levels, which were the best since the morning of December 18th before the Fed announcement (and dot plot) caused a big sell-off.  Today, it's econ data that's contributing to the third day in a row of moderate gains. Specifically, S&P Services PMI […]

While much of the nation deals with the severe cold, I received this note from a new loan officer in Oklahoma. “Rob, I overheard my secondary group talking about a ‘PITA’ price adjustment. I didn’t want to show my ignorance. What is it?” You should ask your team, as it refers to a price […]

Very Low Volatility After Early Morning Rally Bonds were sideways to slightly weaker in the overnight session, but bounced back at 7am ET.  The two most notable developments at the time were weak earnings from Wal-Mart and a comment from Bessent on the mix […]

It was a fairly decent day for mortgage rates with the average lender returning to the lowest levels in just over 2 months. The improvement followed early morning comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding the probable mix of future Treasury debt. What's that got to do with mortgage […]

There's an interesting little case study in this morning's market movement. Bonds had been sideway to very slightly weaker overnight, but began to rally at 7am ET.  The most notable market headline available at the time was news of Walmart's disappointing earnings. Some market journalists credited […]