Bonds were initially stronger, then weaker in the overnight session.  There was a bit of additional selling in the first hour, but none of it corresponded with the 8:30am Durable Goods data. Notably, the data was much weaker than expected.  This helps reinforce our lack of interest in this […]

If you want to see an unscripted moment where politics and the central bank collide, thank Ken Sonner for sending over this clip of President Trump and Fed Chair Powell addressing the press. (Complete with pressure for lower rates, a misstatement of the cost, and with the President taking his hard […]

Reasonably Resilient After Data-Driven Selling This morning's Jobless Claims report was the week's most relevant economic report apart from the S&P PMI data that came out just over an hour later.  As it happened, Claims garnered the only obvious […]

The latest New Home Sales report (released today) shows a slight uptick in June after last month’s sharp drop. The seasonally‑adjusted annual sales pace rose to 627,000. This represents a modest +0.6% gain from May’s revised 623,000, but remains ‑6.6% below the June 2024 level of […]

After falling for 5 straight days leading into Tuesday, mortgage rates have now moved slightly higher on each of the past two days. As was the case with the improvement, the bounce back has been exceedingly modest in its pace. In fact, most borrowers will be seeing the same rates today vs last week […]

July 24… While much of the nation swelters, if you live in Utah, it’s Pie and Beer Day. Uh, I mean, Pioneer Day. The average home in Utah now costs $517,000, a 1 percent increase from last year, per this article and very manageable. If this article (showing state-level fraud rankings) is to be […]

Jobless claims data continues to defy a majority of other labor market metrics in showing a remarkable lack of any signs of softening.  In fact, the 4 week average is now at a 13 week low.  While this isn't the most highly consequential econ data, it's one of this week's […]

Broadly Calm Despite Modest Pull-Back If anything about the present week required investigation and explanation, it was the justification for fairly decent gains right out of the gate. Today's weakness, by comparison, is more logical. Why? Broader momentum […]

It's been a pretty good run for mortgage rates since hitting their most recent highs last Tuesday. Each subsequent day saw a modest improvement. That winning streak finally ended today, but just barely. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate was only 0.01% higher compared to yesterday. For all […]

Two months ago, existing home sales hit a five-month low. Last month’s report showed a minor rebound. This month’s update, released July 23, shows a return to weakness. Sales declined 2.7% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.93 million. That leaves activity just above the recent […]