Uneventfully Flat After Initial Weakness The bond market only had a little more selling to do thanks to the unpleasant tailwind from Wednesday afternoon's Fed press conference. That said, one could also argue that corporate bond issuance was the source of […]

Every now and then, a Thursday comes along where we have to set the record straight on what is actually going on with mortgage rates. That's because Freddie Mac releases its weekly mortgage rate survey on Thursdays and its methodology can cause confusion in the mortgage market.  This particular […]

Are you ready to change the time on your car’s clock, or leave it and let it be right again on March 8, 2026? Some technology is cool. Imagine controlling your iPhone entirely with your eyes. (That would really keep me from riding my bike and talking on the phone!) Food delivery robots have human […]

The simplest way to understand yesterday's post-Fed sell-off is as follows. The market's enthusiasm for 3 Fed rate cuts in 2025 had grown a bit too large for the Fed's liking. The market was nearly 100% certain of another cut in December. The Fed was not as certain, and Powell made it a point to […]

Today was not a foregone conclusion and there was no way to know ahead of time that it would end like this, but the outcome is exactly why we've gone to such lengths to warn you about the potentially paradoxical reaction to a Fed rate cut.  Too many people repeat the fallacy that mortgage rates […]

Another Hawkish Powell Press Conference Harshes Bonds' Mellow The Fed cut rates and ended QT.  Neither were surprises for markets and neither had an impact.  The press conference was hawkish, however, with Powell saying a December cut was far from a […]

Recent Available indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year has been expanding at a moderate pace . Job gains have slowed this year , and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains remained low through August; more recent indicators […]

Bonds are a hair weaker this morning with losses showing up in the overnight session and mostly flattening out in domestic trading.  Without any big ticket data this morning, this aimless drift is standard operating procedure--especially considering the pre-Fed consolidation was largely assumed to […]

"The U.S. Senate is considering a bill that would tax Botox. When Botox users heard this, they were horrified. Well, I think they were horrified. It's difficult to tell." Is anyone motivated to end the government shutdown? I mean, really motivated? One side sticking to their guns about healthcare, […]

Modestly Stronger Ahead of Fed Day Without any market moving econ data on Tuesday, bonds finally managed to find a bid.  Or at least that's how it seemed during domestic hours.  When considering the overnight session, we actually saw yields hit their lows […]