Markets Rocked by New Tariff Drama Bonds were already having a decent day this morning with overnight market movers bringing yields in line with the lower end of the recent range. Mid-day drama caused massive selling in stocks which spilled over and made […]

Mortgage rates saw their biggest day-over-day decline of the past several weeks today in response to unexpected news regarding additional tariffs on China. Trump had previously been scheduled to meet with China's President Xi in 2 weeks, but  today said there was no reason to do so and that the […]

Mortgage application activity declined again last week as refi demand continues pulling back after the surge in mid September. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 3, total volume fell 4.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 5% unadjusted. The Refinance Index […]

The stalemate & shutdown continue, all but eliminating the government release of economic news. Recall that the U.S. Treasury posted a $345 billion budget deficit in August, the largest monthly deficit of 2025 and the 2nd-worst August on record but helped by tariff revenue. This is up from […]

At the start of the week, we noted Japanese political developments as a key reason for overnight losses on Monday morning. This had to do with Takaichi winning control of Japan's LDP party, thus making her the front runner to become the Prime Minister. Her economic views fueled fears that Japan's […]

Uneventful Day; MBS Underperform It's not uncommon to see MBS outperform their Treasury benchmarks in the run up to a round of weekly Treasury auctions only to underperform when the auction cycle wraps up. That underperformance (or rather, Treasury […]

It's getting pretty tough to weave an interesting narrative on mortgage rates over the past 3 weeks. During that time, they just haven't changed that much for the average lender. Today was just another day in that regard. Bonds (which dictate day to day movement in rates) were slightly weaker than […]

“Two lawyers walk into a pub. They order a couple of drinks and take subs out of their brief cases. They begin to eat. Seeing this, the angry pub owner exclaims, ‘Excuse me but you cannot eat your own sandwiches in here!’ The two look at each other, shrug, then exchange sandwiches.” Legal […]

With Jobless Claims on hold due to the shutdown, bonds are forced to endure another data-free morning. The calendar offered a glimmer of hope with a Powell speech, but it was pre-recorded and did not address monetary policy. With that, bonds wait for the day's only real potentially significant […]

Some Selling Pressure After Auction and Fed Minutes There were no market-moving economic reports scheduled for today regardless of the government shutdown. That left the focus entirely on the afternoon events: the 1pm 10yr Treasury auction and the 2pm […]