The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—has spent more than two years stuck in a rut, held back by affordability constraints and the lingering impact of elevated mortgage rates. April's update didn’t do the market […]

The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) weekly application survey continues to track closely with the more granular daily rate data from MND. Both showed mortgage rates climbing to new multi-month highs last week, and that upward momentum once again took a toll on refinance demand—even as […]

Both FHFA and Case Shiller released home price data this week with some mixed messages for the housing market. The first thing to remember about the major home price indices is that they run about 2 months behind--for the month of March in the present case. Another important consideration when […]

Strongest Close of the Week After Well-Contained Month-End Volatility There was always a reasonably high bar for today's econ data to have a big impact. When it came out right in line with expectations this morning, that ship sailed. That left the month-end […]

It has turned out to be a surprisingly calm week for mortgage rates and, as of today, largely a victorious one, even if the victories have been modest.  Today's installment involves a 0.02% drop in the average top tier 30yr fixed rate. This brings the index to the lowest level of the week and a […]

“Rob, what are the odds that the MBA will set up a ‘Man Park’ at the big conference in Las Vegas in October?” Slim to none. The United States is an interesting place. We’re approaching the summer, and last week Steve Pruitt reminded me that New Jersey is pretty much the only place where […]

Today's PCE Price Index is one of the two main consumer inflation reports put out by the US government.  It's bigger and broader than CPI, but CPI comes out 2 weeks earlier than PCE.  CPI and other data also enable traders to forecast PCE much more accurately.  Due to the staleness and lower […]

Bonds Hold Morning Gains; No Reaction to Tariff Headlines To be clear, markets reacted to tariff headlines yesterday evening when the news was that a court decision would block certain tariffs.  But even before today's most relevant tariff headlines, […]

There was a bit of behind-the-scenes volatility in the bond market today.  Normally, bond volatility translates to interest rate volatility. In some cases, the timing of the volatility is such that  has a minimal impact on mortgage lenders. Today was one of those days. Yesterday evening, news […]

How about those junk emails that start off with, “I’m not going to waste your time.” It already wasted my time. Is it a waste of time paying attention to what government officials say, or schedules that they give? Trelix’s Brett Parker noted, “Last year some in the industry were saying, […]