The jobs report is the most important scheduled event each month as far as interest rates are concerned. The last installment helped get the average 30yr fixed rate down from 6.75 to 6.50 because it came out much weaker than expected (in addition to revising the previous two months lower as well). […]

“Apparently you can’t use ‘beef stew’ as a password. It’s not stroganoff.” How’s your privacy? Or another question: Why wouldn’t you tell your recent borrower to freeze their credit after the loan was done? TransUnion has filed data breach disclosures. According to the filings, this […]

Thursday morning's slate of econ data was the most active of the week with claims, layoffs, ADP, and ISM Services (also the Trade Gap and Labor Costs, but those aren't really in the "market mover" category). Ironically, almost all of today's movement happened in the overnight session whereas the […]

Straightforward Data-Driven Rally It proved to be an incredibly straightforward day for the bond market.  Trading levels were roughly unchanged in early trading. Friendly Fed comments provided a modest boost, but it was the JOLTS data that clearly set the […]

October 3rd is a date that has come up many times in the past month of mortgage rate coverage. That's because there's been a veritable chasm between the rates on that day and every other day since then. Why? October 4th's jobs report caused an uncommonly large rate spike with the 30yr fixed average […]

Mortgage applications decreased modestly last week, with overall volume slipping 1.2%. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a decline in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending August 29, 2025. “Mortgage rates declined last week, with the 30-year fixed […]

“Twas the third of September, the day I’ll always remember… Wherever he laid his hat was his home, and when he died, all he left us was a loan…” Okay, maybe it was “alone.” Residential lenders aren’t alone out there. Our fates and fortunes often move in tandem with commercial […]

Bonds were flat to just slightly stronger in the overnight session but a noticeable rally is underway following the JOLTS data (job openings and labor turnover survey). This is a new cycle low for job openings, just barely dropping below the level reported in April 2025 (for March).  MBS have […]

Still in The Range as Bonds Wait For Bigger Influences Bonds were noticeably weaker to start the new month with most of the losses arriving after the start of European trading overnight. Indeed there was strong correlation between EU sovereign debt and […]

Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds can do funny things on the first and last trading days of any given month. One of the most common "funny things" involves a decent amount of market movement for no apparent reason. In truth, there are always reasons, but on the first/last trading day of […]