The Trend is Friendly For Now A common financial market quip is that the "trend is your friend."  We like to add the addendum: "until it's not anymore."  All we can know for sure is that bonds have shifted from range-bound to trending lower in yield over […]

After topping out on May 21st, the average day for mortgage rates has been a good one.  This has been especially true since June 6th with our 30yr fixed index moving down almost 0.25% through this afternoon. Today's gains contributed nicely with a drop of 0.07%. Normally, we'd point to the […]

“I've been experimenting with breeding racing deer. People have accused me of just trying to make a fast buck.” There are no fast bucks to be made in residential lending, and the correct compensation is a continuing topic. (A recent STRATMOR blog was titled, “Compensation is Still Lender’s […]

Visually, the number of line items in this morning's economic calendar may seem daunting. In fact, several of the reports sound like they should matter to the seasoned bond watcher (Durable Goods, GDP, etc). But as it stands, the biggest hour of trading volume this morning fell short of comparable […]

Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger This morning, we noted the lightness of the selling pressure that took bonds into modestly weaker territory. It turns out it was so light that it was easy for bond buyers to get back on top un the afternoon […]

The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate had already dipped to the lowest levels since May 1st at the start of the week.  Two additional days of modest improvement brings us to the lowest levels since April 4th as of today.   April 4th is probably a day that's worth remembering.  If rates […]

AI doesn’t have an NMLS number. (Zillow has never, ever set foot in a house for that matter.) Do you own a computer? Most in lending do. Elon Musk? I guess not. A courtroom twist in Musk's war with OpenAI has revealed a stunningly bizarre detail about the self-described Techno King: His lawyers […]

Bonds are taking a breath this morning after hitting the best levels in more than a month yesterday. The event calendar is much lighter than it seems at first glance.  While there's always some chance that Powell will say something important at a congressional testimony, the chances are far lower […]

Solid Response to Data and Dovishness The morning commentary focused more on the relatively dovish tone struck by Powell in today's congressional testimony. To be clear, we wouldn't say it was dovish in an outright sense, but when compared to last week's […]

Both the FHFA and Case‑Shiller home price indices were released today. While the data collection time frame is from April, they each suggest a similar shift is underway when adjusting for seasonality. Specifically, if we ignore seasonality, prices rose.  If we don't, they were down 0.4% from […]