Could Have Been Better. Could Have Been Worse If the bond market was a Mario Bro, it found a gold star at some point on Wednesday. As Thursday afternoon, the gold star ran out of juice and we're back to regular old Mario. In other words, astonishing […]

If you're busy, we can make this quick. Existing home sales dropped sharply from over 6m units per year starting in 2022 and had bottomed out around 4m units per year by the end of 2023. They've done essentially nothing exciting since then and the latest update is no exception. The end.  If you […]

Mortgage applications continued to lose ground as mortgage rates held near their highest levels in nearly three years. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.7% decline in total mortgage application volume for the week ending October 9. That's an important date, because a […]

After dropping sharply over the past 5 days, mortgage rates finally reminded us that they're still capable of moving higher. Thankfully, today's bump was modest in the recent context, only adding 0.04% to a 30yr fixed that had fallen 0.27% since October 7th.  Even though today's losses were […]

The MBA believes that 2027’s production will be 5 percent less than 2026’s and be below $2 trillion. “Rob, are you hearing that, with volumes down (units and volume), lenders are once again examining keeping entire loan originator workforces?” Indeed I am. At the most basic level, as we […]

The past two days saw a unique confluence of factors that led to a precipitous, unexpected, and fairly large rally in the bond market. The easiest scapegoat is the general notion of fear surrounding AI/tech share prices and debt contagion. One simple effect was investors reallocating out of stocks […]

Mortgage rates dropped again today, and at a much faster pace than yesterday's decline. Top tier 30yr fixed rates are now down to 7.33% for the average lender, a drop of more than 0.25% from the long-term highs seen just last week. There are a lot of moving parts behind the scenes so let's focus on […]

Exciting Times, But Don't Get Too Excited There's no question that the past 5 days have been the best 5 days that we've seen in a long time in terms of direction movement in rates. They're made all the more miraculous because the past 2 days included much […]

“My coworker asked me how I’m doing this morning. Yet another third party trying to steal my data!” Data travels at the speed of light. Mickey D’s is reportedly using artificial intelligence to “dynamically” price its burgers. Imagine a lender trying that! AI filled the exhibition hall […]

Core PPI was up 0.7 vs 0.3 forecast this morning. That's something that would normally send yields much higher. But everything is different this morning. Bonds rallied sharply in the overnight session and added a bit more to the gains after the 8:30am data. This is on top of yesterday's stunning […]