Weaker Conclusion But No Major Big Picture Implications Despite much stronger revisions and a modestly stronger core retail sales number this morning, bonds managed to hold mostly sideways until the afternoon hours.  At that point, lighter summertime […]

Friday proved to be the weakest day of the week for the underlying bond market and, thus, the highest day of the week for mortgage rates. Retail sales data was generally stronger than expected, especially when considering revisions and when focusing on the "core" numbers that strip out more […]

“The difference between me and Superman is that he has super vision. I require supervision.” We’re halfway through the third quarter: Will your company require supervision or super vision to go forward? Speaking of which, when did our business start with the catchy slogans? Stay alive in […]

Friday morning's highlight is the Retail Sales report which came in at a respectable 0.5 vs 0.5 headline. Core retail sales (excluding autos/gas/building materials) was even more respectable as it not only beat the forecast by 0.1, but was also revised 0.3 higher last month. If the bond market were […]

Bonds Hold The Range Despite More Data-Driven Volatility At 0.9, not only did today's PPI crush the 0.2 forecast, but it's also the highest reading since post-covid hyper-inflation by a wide margin.  And while there's always a chance it will be revised to […]

Mortgage rates hit fresh long term lows yesterday with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at the best levels since October 3rd, 2024.  There wasn't anything exceptional about the movement yesterday or on any other day in the past week.  Rather, it was the jobs report at the beginning of the […]

“I somehow managed to make it through high school math while only being able to remember even numbers. What are the odds?!” As the California MBA’s Western Secondary breaks up here in Southern California, numbers are dancing in everyone’s head. Volumes, margins, gain on sale, concessions, […]

There's no question that today's Producer Price Index came in surprisingly hot. Both the headline and core numbers were 0.9% vs forecasts of 0.2%.  The biggest impact came from "trade services" which speaks to wholesalers and retailers marking up margins. There were similar anecdotes in other […]

Data-Free Rally Day Wednesday represented this week's lull in terms of scheduled market movers on the calendar. Overnight gains game courtesy of strength in EU bonds as well as burgeoning expectations for a Fed rate cut at the September meeting (now roughly […]

October 3rd, 2024 continues to be the day to beat when it comes to mortgage rates hanging out at 10 month lows. Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate matched October 4th levels for the first time since then, just barely edging out last week's lowest levels. Hitting the next milestone will be a much […]